Plausible Drying and Wetting Scenarios for Summer in Southeastern South America
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract Summer rainfall trends in Southeastern South America (SE-SA) have received attention recent decades because of their importance for climate impacts. More than one driving mechanism has been identified the trends, some which opposing effects. It is still not clear how much each contributed to observed or combined influence will affect future changes. Here we address second question and study CMIP6 summer SE-SA response green house warming can be explained by mechanisms related large-scale extratropical circulation responses Southern Hemisphere remote drivers (RDs) regional change. We find uncertainty well represented combining four RDs: tropical upper tropospheric amplification surface warming, delay stratospheric polar vortex breakdown date, two RD’s characterizing recognized Pacific SST patterns. Applying a storyline framework, identify combination RD that lead most extreme drying wetting scenarios. Although scenarios involve wetting, result if high upper-tropospheric early conditions are with low central eastern warming. also show definition box impact results, since spatial patterns dynamical influences complex changes averaged out these considered when aggregating. This article’s perspective associated methodology applicable other regions globe.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Climate
سال: 2023
ISSN: ['1520-0442', '0894-8755']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-23-0134.1